Credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings expects a modest rebound in global steel demand in 2026, while maintaining a neutral outlook for the sector. According to Fitch, weaker steel consumption in China is likely to be offset by recovering demand in other regions.
Key supportive factors include easing monetary policy, ongoing infrastructure investment, and a gradual recovery in construction activity. However, Fitch warned that the recovery remains vulnerable to geopolitical risks, uneven manufacturing demand, and persistent trade tensions.
China outlook
Fitch forecasts that China’s steel output will decline by around 4.5% in 2026, driven by tighter production controls and increasing trade barriers.
As a result, Chinese steel exports are expected to fall from an estimated 118 million mt in 2025 to 109 million mt in 2026, according to Fitch’s Global Steel Outlook 2026.
Despite lower output and exports, Chinese steelmakers’ margins improved in 2025 and are expected to strengthen further in 2026, supported by efficiency gains and easing cost pressures.
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